Name: David
Status: Student
Grade: 9-12
Location: WI
Country: United States
Date: May 2008
Question:
I am doing a project for my calculus class about exponential change, and
I need information on how fast the ice caps are melting. Could someone give me like
a percentage, or how quick they are melting per degree above a certain point?
Replies:
Hi David,
Trying to fit something to an exponential model makes most sense if the underlying
processes operate in a similar manner. Ice sheet melting rate is not a geometric
process proportional to the ice sheet mass and has potential non-geometric
feedbacks such as subsurface meltwater streams increasing slippage and glacial
flow rates into the sea. You could certainly create a hypothetical geometric
model for glacier melting, but whether that would come anything near actual trends
would be a big question.
If you want something ecologically related with more predictably geometric change
that you can fit to an exponential model, things like energy use or increasing
population make more sense. Obviously these will also have non constant feedbacks
as well, but at least things like population growth are strongly proportionally
linked to current population. Things best fit to exponential models are measures
that are a fairly consistently a larger or smaller proportion of the current state
over time.
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